Jonathon Karelse leverages expertise in forecasting and demand planning to serve as a partner with NorthFind, where he assists global manufacturers and distribution companies with sales and operations planning. Known as a leader in the industry, Jonathon Karelse also contributes to blogs and publications by organizations such as the SAS Institute.
In a recent SAS blog by Michael Gilliland, a product marketing manager for SAS Forecasting software, Jonathon Karelse offered a number of suggestions for forecasting research projects. One of Karelse’s recommendations was to compare a company’s forecasting performance from the previous year to a Naïve model. When commencing a forecasting improvement effort, Gilliland notes that it is essential to determine present performance, and states that the project should investigate if a company’s forecasting process is at least as effective as a simple method, such as a moving average forecast. He also advises professionals not to blinfly compare company performance to industry standards, as they may be irrelevant to particular company’s forecasting improvement.
For another forecasting research project, Karelse suggests generating a “comet chart” that shows how forecast accuracy and volatility are linked. This project results in a visual synopsis of forecasting challenges, which can be used to inspire solutions to decrease the “volatility of demand patterns.”